Rangers vs Tigers Picks and Betting Trends – 5/10/2025

Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers will host the Texas Rangers on May 10, 2025, in the second game of their series at Comerica Park. After a hard-fought matchup yesterday, where the Tigers emerged victorious, they look to continue their strong play. Currently, the Tigers are 26-13, showcasing a powerful offense that ranks 1st in MLB in batting average and 4th overall. In contrast, the Rangers sit at 18-21, struggling with a ranking of 27th in overall offensive performance.

On the mound, the Tigers will send out Jack Flaherty, who has had an inconsistent season with a 1-4 record and a 3.79 ERA. However, his 3.11 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may be poised for improvement. Flaherty’s average projection of 5.7 innings pitched and 2.7 earned runs allowed indicates he could be a stabilizing force for Detroit. He also projects to strike out an average of 6.0 batters, which is a positive sign.

Facing Flaherty will be Jacob deGrom, an elite pitcher ranked 15th in MLB with a 2.61 ERA. DeGrom has a 2-1 record this season and is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs. However, his higher xFIP of 3.66 indicates he might be due for some regression.

With both teams struggling to find consistent offensive outputs, the low Game Total of 7.5 runs reflects this uncertainty. Betting markets have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating a tight contest. Despite the Tigers’ lower implied team total of 3.75 runs, their overall performance suggests they have the edge in this matchup, especially with their dominant bullpen ranked 1st in MLB.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jacob deGrom has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.53 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 10.37 — a 1.84 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Corey Seager has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.5-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-195/+150)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decrease from last season’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Extreme groundball batters like Javier Baez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+205/-275)
  Javier Baez has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+8.20 Units / 91% ROI)