Rangers vs Tigers Picks and Betting Trends – 5/10/2025

Texas Rangers

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Detroit Tigers

On May 10, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Texas Rangers at Comerica Park for the second game of their series. In their previous matchup, the Tigers edged out the Rangers with a tight 2-1 victory, highlighting the Tigers’ strong season as they sit at 26-13. In contrast, the Rangers are struggling with an 18-21 record, making this matchup particularly critical for them as they aim to turn things around.

The Tigers will send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who has had an uneven season with a 1-4 record and a 3.79 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been a bit unlucky, as his 3.12 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. Flaherty projects to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, striking out 6.0 batters, but he struggles with a high projected hit count of 5.2.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom will take the hill for the Rangers. He has been a standout, boasting a 2.61 ERA and a solid 2-1 record this season, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced rankings. DeGrom also projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs and striking out 6.0 batters, although his high projected hit rate of 4.2 raises some concerns.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 7th in MLB, showcasing their potent lineup, while the Rangers are near the bottom at 27th. This disparity in offensive production could be a crucial factor, especially since the Tigers’ best hitter has been on a tear lately, batting .522 over the past week.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the betting markets view this as a closely contested matchup. The Tigers may have the edge given their overall performance and offensive prowess, which could lead to a favorable outcome against the Rangers.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The Detroit Tigers have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Jacob deGrom in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Joc Pederson has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 96.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be wise to expect stronger performance for the Texas Rangers offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Jack Flaherty’s 92.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decrease from last season’s 93.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tomas Nido – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-115/-115)
  Texas’s #1-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Tomas Nido, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen grades out as the best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+10.50 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Jonah Heim has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)