Rangers vs Red Sox Picks and Odds – August 14, 2024

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

On August 14, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park in what is the third game of their series. The Red Sox, currently positioned above average at 63-55, are coming off an impressive victory against the Rangers, having won 9-4 just yesterday. The Rangers, sitting at 55-65, have struggled this season and are not expected to contend for a playoff spot.

Tanner Houck is projected to take the mound for Boston. He ranks as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB and has had a solid season with a 3.02 ERA. However, his peripheral metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as both his xERA and SIERA indicate potential regression. In his last outing on August 9, Houck pitched well, going 6 innings with only 1 earned run.

Conversely, Dane Dunning, who will start for Texas, has had a challenging season with a 4-7 record and a 4.77 ERA, which falls below the league average. His projections indicate he will struggle, expected to pitch only 4.3 innings while allowing around 2.6 earned runs. This matchup presents a clear advantage for the Red Sox, especially given their potent offense, which ranks 4th in the league.

The projections favor Boston to score approximately 4.92 runs against a Rangers bullpen that, despite being ranked 3rd overall, may face challenges against the Red Sox’s strong lineup. With a high implied team total of 5.02 runs for Boston, they are likely to capitalize on Dunning’s struggles and continue their momentum from yesterday’s victory. As the Red Sox look to maintain their standing, they appear well-positioned to take another win against the lowly Rangers.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Dane Dunning – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Dane Dunning to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Carson Kelly – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Carson Kelly has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 76.2-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Tanner Houck’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (69.1% vs. 60.5% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Rafael Devers has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .397 mark is a fair amount higher than his .354 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Danny Jansen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games (+16.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.60 Units / 44% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+140/-180)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Walks Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+14.55 Units / 69% ROI)