Rangers vs Orioles Picks and Odds – June 24, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 24, 2025, both teams come off contrasting performances in their previous game. The Orioles secured a dominant 6-0 victory, while the Rangers stumbled to the same scoreline in their defeat.

Currently, the Orioles sit at 34-44, struggling to find their footing this season, whereas the Rangers hold a slightly better record at 38-41. Despite their below-average performance, the Rangers’ offense has seen mixed results, ranking 28th in MLB, particularly weak in batting average. The projections indicate that both teams may face challenges against each other’s starting pitchers today.

For the Orioles, veteran right-hander Charlie Morton takes the mound. Although Morton’s 5.64 ERA suggests a rough outing this year, he has shown flashes of improvement, especially in his last start, where he went six innings and allowed just one earned run. Still, his high walk rate (10.4 BB%) could play into the hands of the Rangers’ low-walk offense, which ranks 4th least in MLB.

On the other side, the Rangers’ Jake Latz, a left-hander, has been struggling in recent outings. Although his 3.26 ERA appears impressive, his underlying metrics suggest he may be due for a downturn. A striking feature is that both Morton and Latz project to struggle with hits and walks, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring affair, as indicated by the Game Total of 9.5 runs.

Finally, with Baltimore’s offense ranking 21st in MLB, they will look to capitalize on their recent momentum and take advantage of Latz’s recent challenges, while Texas will aim to shake off their last game’s defeat and find a way to break through against Morton. Betting markets suggest a close contest, making today’s matchup intriguing for both teams and their supporters.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Considering the 1.54 gap between Jake Latz’s 3.26 ERA and his 4.80 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Alejandro Osuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Alejandro Osuna has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Charlie Morton has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .354 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ramon Laureano has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Gary Sanchez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.88 Units / 27% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 68 games (+21.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+600/-1100)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+6.90 Units / 99% ROI)