Rangers vs Orioles Picks and Odds – June 24, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Texas Rangers on June 24, 2025, the stakes remain significant even for teams out of contention. The Orioles, currently struggling with a 34-44 record, will look to break a recent lull after losing to the Rangers in yesterday’s matchup. Meanwhile, the Rangers, at 38-41, are also experiencing a below-average season but will aim to build momentum from their recent win.

Baltimore is projected to start right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton, who has had an inconsistent season with a 4-7 record and a troubling 5.64 ERA. Despite his struggles, advanced projections suggest Morton could perform better than his numbers indicate, thanks to an xFIP of 3.96 that hints at some bad luck. However, Morton’s high walk rate (10.4 BB%) could spell trouble against a Rangers offense that has been surprisingly patient.

On the other side, Texas will counters with Jake Latz, a left-handed pitcher whose 1-0 record and impressive 3.26 ERA might seem promising. However, Latz’s 4.02 xFIP suggests his performance could regress. Both pitchers could find themselves in tough spots as they face lineups that rank towards the bottom of the league in batting average—Baltimore at 23rd and Texas at 27th.

While the Orioles boast the 11th best home run ranking in MLB, their overall offensive performance has been lackluster, ranking 22nd. The Rangers’ offense, ranked 28th, has struggled significantly, despite finding some success on the base paths, ranking 9th in stolen bases.

Betting markets suggest a close contest, with the Orioles holding a slight edge at -135, indicating a projected team total of 5.29 runs. With both teams in need of a win to regain some confidence, expect a tightly contested affair at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  Considering the 1.54 gap between Jake Latz’s 3.26 ERA and his 4.80 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  In the past week, Josh Smith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Charlie Morton has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .353 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Ramon Laureano has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.9-mph dropping to 81.1-mph in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Gary Sanchez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.88 Units / 27% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 68 games (+21.30 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Josh H. Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 31% ROI)