Rangers vs Cardinals Value Bets and Betting Line – 7/30/2024

Texas Rangers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers gear up for their second game of the series on July 30, 2024, at Busch Stadium, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. The Cardinals sit at 54-52 while the Rangers are at 52-55. With both teams not currently contending for a playoff spot, this interleague matchup offers a chance for either side to gain some momentum.

In yesterday’s series opener, the Cardinals managed to secure a win, giving them a slight edge heading into today’s game. The Cardinals will look to Lance Lynn, a right-handed pitcher who has started 20 games this season and holds a 5-4 record with a 4.17 ERA. However, his 4.91 xERA suggests that he has been somewhat fortunate and might face challenges ahead. Lynn is projected to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, with a below-average strikeout projection of 4.9 batters.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with Max Scherzer, also a right-handed pitcher, who has started 7 games this season. Scherzer holds a 2-3 record with a 3.57 ERA, indicating a solid performance thus far. His projections mirror Lynn’s in innings pitched at 5.4 but are slightly better in terms of earned runs allowed (2.5) and strikeouts (5.3).

Offensively, the Cardinals rank as the 18th best in MLB, while the Rangers are 21st. Despite this, St. Louis has shown more power and efficiency, ranking 14th in team batting average compared to Texas’ 18th. Over the last week, Paul Goldschmidt has been the standout for the Cardinals, hitting .304 with a .957 OPS, including two home runs. Nate Lowe has been the Rangers’ best hitter, boasting a .348 average and a 1.152 OPS with two home runs and seven RBIs over the same period.

The Cardinals’ bullpen, ranked 7th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a deciding factor against the Rangers’ 20th-ranked bullpen. Betting markets have the Rangers as slight favorites with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. However, with the Cardinals at +100 and an implied win probability of 48%, this game is expected to be closely contested, and the Cardinals’ recent win could provide the boost they need to take this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.6) suggests that Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck this year with his 8.7 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Lance Lynn – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Lance Lynn has relied on his secondary pitches 7% less often this year (36.8%) than he did last year (43.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Over the last 7 days, Lars Nootbaar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.25 Units / 30% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 103 games (+12.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)