Prediction and Game Breakdown: Padres vs Orioles Match Saturday July 27, 2024)

San Diego Padres

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres continue their interleague series on July 27, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are having a fantastic season with a 61-42 record, while the Padres hold an above-average 56-50 record. Both teams are vying for playoff spots, making this a crucial matchup.

Yesterday, the Padres managed an upset, defeating the Orioles 6-4 despite being significant underdogs. The Orioles’ bullpen, ranked 18th in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, couldn’t hold the lead, while the Padres’ bullpen, ranked 10th, did just enough to secure the win.

On the mound, the Orioles will start Dean Kremer, who has had a rough season. With a 4-6 record and a 4.43 ERA, Kremer’s underlying metrics suggest he might struggle further. His xERA of 5.47 and FIP of 5.17 indicate he’s been fortunate so far. Kremer is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.5 hits, and 1.3 walks on average, which is not promising against a Padres offense ranked 11th overall.

The Padres counter with Michael King, who has been stellar this season. Holding an 8-6 record and a 3.28 ERA, King ranks 26th among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. King is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.1 hits, and 1.6 walks. His last start was impressive, going 7 innings with 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, and just 2 hits.

Offensively, the Orioles boast the 3rd best lineup in MLB, leading the league in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been their standout player, hitting .284 with 28 home runs. Meanwhile, the Padres’ offense, ranked 1st in team batting average, is led by Jurickson Profar, who has a .301 average and 18 home runs.

The betting markets see this as a close game, with the Orioles at -105 and the Padres at -115. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 51% win probability. The projections suggest a tight contest, with the Orioles expected to score 4.35 runs and the Padres 4.53 runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 7 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Michael King today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Despite posting a .374 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has experienced some positive variance given the .057 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Dean Kremer’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.3-mph decrease from last season’s 94.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Ramon Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Ramon Urias’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Baltimore Orioles have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 51 of their last 98 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.95 Units / 25% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.55 Units / 65% ROI)