Player Stats for Padres vs Rockies – May 11th, 2025

San Diego Padres

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Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to face off against the San Diego Padres on May 11, 2025, they do so coming off a staggering loss, having been shut out 21-0 by the Padres in the previous game. The Rockies, struggling through a dismal season with a record of 6-33, will be seeking to turn the tide against a Padres team that boasts a strong 25-13 record.

On the mound for the Rockies is German Marquez, whose struggles have been well-documented this season. With a Win/Loss record of 0-6 and an alarming ERA of 9.90, Marquez ranks as the 222nd best starting pitcher in MLB, placing him among the league’s worst. His projections indicate he may allow an average of 3.8 earned runs and 7.2 hits over 5.4 innings, which could further hinder the Rockies’ hopes.

On the other side, the Padres will counter with Nick Pivetta, who has been a standout with a 5-1 record and a remarkable 2.01 ERA, ranking him 62nd among MLB starters. Pivetta’s high strikeout rate of 28.4% plays well against the Rockies’ offense, which leads the league in strikeouts. He projects to give up about 3.0 earned runs and 5.5 hits while striking out 6.4 batters over 5.3 innings.

Offensively, the disparity between the teams is glaring. The Rockies rank 29th in MLB in offense, while the Padres sit at 8th, highlighted by their stellar batting average of .322. With their best hitter performing at an elite level recently, accumulating a .579 batting average over the last week, the Padres enter as heavy favorites.

Despite the odds, if Marquez can find a way to limit the damage, the Rockies might have a slight chance to upset the Padres, who are currently viewed as the team to beat in this matchup.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Nick Pivetta’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (55.1 compared to 48.2% last season) is not ideal since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Over the past 7 days, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  German Marquez’s 94.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 79th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Ryan McMahon has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94-mph to 97.2-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Alan Trejo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  When assessing his overall offensive ability, Alan Trejo ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.27 Units / 22% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-310)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+180/-240)
  Michael Toglia has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 51% ROI)