Player Stats for Giants vs D-Backs – June 30th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On June 30, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field for the first game of their series. The Diamondbacks are currently sitting at 41-42, showing an average performance this season, while the Giants hold a record of 45-39, indicating an above-average year. This matchup carries weight as both teams look to gain traction in the National League West.

In their last game, the Giants showcased their pitching prowess with Logan Webb on the mound, who has been nothing short of elite this season, ranking 5th among MLB starting pitchers. Webb’s impressive 2.52 ERA and high groundball rate of 55% may pose challenges for the Diamondbacks, especially considering their powerful offense, which ranks 2nd in MLB. However, the Diamondbacks have a potent lineup, ranking 5th in both team batting average and home runs, which could exploit any mistakes Webb makes.

On the other hand, Ryne Nelson will take the hill for Arizona. With a modest 3.71 ERA, Nelson is projected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs. His average strikeout rate of 4.6 K’s per game may not intimidate the Giants, who have struggled offensively this season, ranking 24th in team batting average and home runs.

While the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is ranked 20th, the Giants possess the top bullpen in MLB, which could be crucial late in the game. Despite being underdogs with a moneyline of +130, the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities and Webb’s potential vulnerability against a high-powered lineup could lead to an intriguing contest. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive showdown.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to the average starter, Logan Webb has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 9.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (65.1 vs. 56% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ketel Marte has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 98.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.317 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .335 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+9.95 Units / 30% ROI)