Player Stats for Giants vs D-Backs – June 30th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on June 30, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing losses in their last outings. The Diamondbacks fell short against the Giants, losing 6-4 on June 29, while the Giants were defeated 5-2 in their prior matchup. This National League West showdown marks the first game of the series, adding a layer of intensity as both teams strive to improve their standings.

Currently, the Diamondbacks sit at 41-42, showing signs of an average season, while the Giants hold a better record at 45-39, indicating a performance above average. However, the projections suggest that the Diamondbacks could be undervalued given their offensive prowess; they rank 3rd in MLB for overall offense and 5th in home runs, showcasing their ability to generate runs despite a struggling bullpen ranked 29th.

On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Ryne Nelson, who has had a solid season with a 4-2 record and a 3.71 ERA. Although Nelson is considered average by advanced metrics, he pitched well in his last start, allowing just one earned run over five innings. In contrast, the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB with a 2.52 ERA. Webb’s high groundball rate (55 GB%) could pose challenges for the Diamondbacks, who thrive on power hitting.

Despite the Giants being favored with a moneyline of -145, the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive capabilities may give them an edge. With an implied team total of 3.69 runs, they could outperform expectations, especially against a Giants lineup struggling offensively, ranking 24th. This matchup could prove pivotal for both teams as they look to gain momentum moving forward.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average starter, Logan Webb has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an additional 9.1 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Daniel Johnson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Daniel Johnson is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ryne Nelson’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (65.1 vs. 56% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Ketel Marte has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 98.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.313 projected wOBA via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .335 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 68 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)
  Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+9.85 Units / 35% ROI)