Player Stats for Cardinals vs Braves - June 30th, 2026

+135O/U: 9.5
(-110/-110)-160

Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)
Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (95% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Martin Perez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
Compared to the average pitcher, Martin Perez has been granted a below-average leash this year, recording an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
The Atlanta Braves bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 80% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 24 away games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)

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