Player Rankings for Rays vs Red Sox – 7/10/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

With the Boston Red Sox sitting just two games behind the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East standings, this matchup on July 10, 2025, at Fenway Park carries significant weight. Both teams boast above-average records this season, with the Red Sox at 49-45 and the Rays at 50-43, making this series opener a crucial one for both squads as they aim to solidify their playoff positions.

In their last game, the Red Sox showcased their offensive prowess, ranking 5th in MLB. Their best hitter has been on fire lately, posting an impressive .524 batting average and a 1.617 OPS over the last week. Conversely, the Rays’ offense has had a solid year as well, currently sitting at 13th overall, but their recent production has been inconsistent. Their top hitter has a respectable .400 average but only 10 hits in the last six games, indicating that they need more support from their lineup.

On the mound, the projections favor the Rays’ Taj Bradley, who has been more effective this season than the Red Sox’s Walker Buehler. Despite Buehler’s experience, his 6.25 ERA is a glaring concern, and he ranks as the 208th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Meanwhile, Bradley, with a 4.79 ERA, ranks 88th, suggesting he’s had a better season overall, despite a less-than-stellar win-loss record of 5-6.

Given the Red Sox’s strong offensive capabilities against a struggling Buehler, combined with the fact that their projected team total is set at 4.75 runs today, they could find success in this matchup. With both teams evenly matched on paper, this game promises to be a tight contest where every run counts.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Taj Bradley’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 85th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Chandler Simpson is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Because groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Walker Buehler (44.5% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Barrel% of Ceddanne Rafaela has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.6% last year to 13.3% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.0 (+125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-215)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.85 Units / 99% ROI)