Player Rankings for Phillies vs Pirates – 6/07/25

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 7, 2025, following last night’s close encounter where the Pirates edged out the Phillies 5-4. With the Pirates struggling at 24-40 this season, they find themselves near the bottom of the standings, while the Phillies, sporting a strong 37-26 record, are positioned for a postseason push.

On the mound, Pittsburgh is set to start Andrew Heaney, who faces a tough task against a potent Phillies lineup. Heaney, currently ranked 250th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a rough season despite an impressive ERA of 3.39. However, his 4.38 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, and his projections indicate he could allow around 3.2 earned runs over an average of 5.1 innings today. Heaney’s recent form shows promise, as he delivered a solid 6-inning performance with just 2 earned runs in his last start against a different opponent.

On the other hand, Ranger Suarez, ranked 28th, has been stellar for Philadelphia, boasting a 4-0 record and an ERA of 2.72. His projections indicate he should pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, which would be a significant advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 27th in the league. Although Suarez’s projections suggest he may also see some adverse luck in the future, his current form is more than sufficient to handle the struggling Pirates.

The Pirates’ offense has been particularly ineffective, ranking 29th in home runs, and their recent game performances have not inspired confidence. Conversely, the Phillies rank 8th in overall offensive production, led by a hitter with a .931 OPS. Given the contrasting forms and statistical profiles, the Phillies seem well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Ranger Suarez (50.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  Pittsburgh’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Johan Rojas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Philadelphia has performed as the #3 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (17.2% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Nick Gonzales is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh’s 93.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #6 offense in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3500)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)