Player Rankings for Cubs vs Pirates – 9/15/25

Chicago Cubs

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Chicago Cubs on September 15, 2025, in this matchup showcasing two teams with contrasting fortunes this season. The Pirates, sitting at 65-85, have struggled mightily and are coming off a close loss to the Cubs yesterday, where the final score was 4-3. Meanwhile, the Cubs are contending for a playoff spot with an impressive 85-64 record, and they are riding high after their latest victory.

In this matchup, the Pirates are set to start Braxton Ashcraft, who has demonstrated some promise with a solid ERA of 2.47 this season, ranking him as the 84th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. However, despite his success, projections suggest he may not go deep into this game, averaging just 4.2 innings pitched and allowing 2.1 earned runs with concerning averages of 4.4 hits and 1.3 walks. The Pirates’ offense, which ranks a dismal 30th in the league, doesn’t provide much support, leaving them vulnerable.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who holds a 4.15 ERA and has been inconsistent this season. Yet, Taillon’s ability to eat innings is an asset, as he’s expected to average 5.3 innings pitched. The Cubs’ offensive strength is highlighted by their 10th best ranking in MLB, backed by their best hitter’s recent performance with 11 hits and a remarkable .478 batting average over the last week.

With betting markets viewing this as a close contest, the Cubs have a slight edge with a moneyline of -120. The projections favor the Cubs to score around 4.1 runs while the Pirates are expected to manage just 3.9 runs for the game total of 8.0, presenting an intriguing evening of baseball at PNC Park.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-best out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Willi Castro is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Chicago Cubs with a 21.4% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Braxton Ashcraft to be on a pitch count today, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Joey Bart has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.8-mph average to last year’s 93-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 77 of their last 126 games (+23.00 Units / 16% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 89 games (+12.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)