Player Rankings for Astros vs Royals – 4/25/25

Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to face the Houston Astros on April 25, 2025, at Kauffman Stadium, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting recent performances. The Royals are currently 12-14, struggling to find their footing and ranking 29th in overall offensive production in MLB. In their last game, they secured a solid 6-2 victory, which may provide a much-needed boost, but they have been inconsistent throughout the season. The Astros, with a slightly better record of 13-11, are also navigating a rough patch, though they recently won their last game 3-1.

On the mound, the Royals are set to start Seth Lugo, who has an ERA of 3.90 this season. While that number looks serviceable, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, given his 4.59 xFIP, indicating he has been a bit fortunate. Lugo’s performance projects to be around 6.2 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs allowed, but he struggles with walks and hits, likely making him vulnerable against any potent lineup.

The Astros will counter with Hayden Wesneski, who also boasts a respectable ERA of 3.91 but holds a more favorable 3.00 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and could bounce back in this start. Wesneski has shown durability, projected to pitch approximately 5.4 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs.

Despite their current struggles, advanced stats suggest the Royals might have a hidden edge in this game, particularly as they aim to capitalize on Wesneski’s potential weaknesses. With both teams hovering around the same implied win total of 4.00 runs, expect a tightly contested game, but the Royals may have the slight edge in this early series opener.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  Hayden Wesneski is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Seth Lugo’s curveball rate has decreased by 5.6% from last season to this one (26.3% to 20.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball bats like Maikel Garcia are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hayden Wesneski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)