Player Rankings for Astros vs Royals – 4/25/25

Houston Astros

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Houston Astros on April 25, 2025, both teams are looking for a much-needed win. The Astros enter the game with a solid 13-11 record, enjoying an above-average performance this season. In contrast, the Royals sit at 12-14, struggling below average in their games. This matchup features Seth Lugo on the mound for the Royals and Hayden Wesneski for the Astros, both right-handed pitchers.

The Astros are hoping to capitalize on their recent success, particularly given Hayden Wesneski’s projection of 5.4 innings pitched and an average of 2.6 earned runs allowed today. Notably, Wesneski ranks 89th among starting pitchers, above average compared to the roughly 350 pitchers in MLB. Meanwhile, Lugo, projected to pitch 6.3 innings but allowing 2.9 earned runs, ranks 114th, indicating an average performance overall but perhaps benefiting from a bit of luck this season.

Kansas City’s offense has struggled, ranking 29th in MLB, particularly evident in their 30th spot for home runs. This puts added pressure on Lugo, as the Royals will need to support him with runs to secure a victory. The Astros’ offense, while also underperforming at 23rd in the league, still holds an edge with players like their best hitter currently batting .368 over the past week.

As Kansas City finds itself with a +105 moneyline, the betting market suggests a close game, though the Astros, with their -125 line, may have the advantage in talent and recent form. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup promises to be tightly contested as both teams vie for momentum in the early-season standings.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Hayden Wesneski is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #29 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Isaac Paredes has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-185/+140)
  Seth Lugo’s curveball rate has decreased by 5.6% from last season to this one (26.3% to 20.7%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Hayden Wesneski.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Today, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.4% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)