Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)-110
As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the Washington Nationals at PNC Park on April 16, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Pirates hold a disappointing 6-12 record, while the Nationals sit slightly better at 7-10. Both teams are in the cellar of their division, and their recent performances have not inspired much confidence.
In their last encounter, the Nationals secured a win, keeping the pressure on the Pirates who are looking to turn around their fortunes. Bailey Falter, projected to pitch for the Pirates, has had a rough start to the season, sporting an 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 7.20. His performance has landed him as the 252nd best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. While he averages 5.5 innings pitched per game, his propensity to give up runs, with an average of 2.7 earned runs projected, poses a significant concern.
Conversely, Mitchell Parker, the Nationals’ starter, boasts a strong 2-0 record and an outstanding ERA of 1.96. However, projections suggest that he may be living on borrowed time, with his xFIP indicating he could face regression. Parker’s low strikeout rate against a high-strikeout Pirates lineup might offer him some advantage; however, he must be wary of their speed on the bases.
The Pirates’ offense struggles significantly, ranking 29th in MLB, while their pitching staff is also among the league’s worst, sitting at 26th per Power Rankings. The Nationals, on the other hand, possess a more balanced offense, ranking 11th in MLB. With a Game Total currently set at 8.5 runs, this matchup appears to hinge on which pitcher can deliver in a key moment, particularly given their contrasting performances thus far this season.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Mitchell Parker has utilized his curveball 7.5% less often this season (15.1%) than he did last season (22.6%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Josh Bell – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Josh Bell’s average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 88.7-mph average last year has lowered to 84.4-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Washington Nationals (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters on the slate today.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Bailey Falter’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 92-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Tommy Pham – Over/Under Total BasesExtreme flyball bats like Tommy Pham tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen profiles as the worst among all the teams in MLB.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)