Player Props Analysis for Padres vs Cubs - Wednesday October 1st, 2025

-110O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-110

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
Dylan Cease has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his ERA this year; his 4.55 mark is quite a bit higher than his 3.62 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Jackson Merrill has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .332 rate is considerably lower than his .369 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Ryan O’Hearn has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Andrew Kittredge – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+165/-215)
Andrew Kittredge’s 2509.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 94th percentile among all SPs.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
The Chicago Cubs projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+17.90 Units / 19% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 away games (+13.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
Michael Busch has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 33% ROI)

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics