Player Props Analysis for Brewers vs Guardians – Tuesday May 13th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 13, 2025, in the second game of their interleague series at Progressive Field. After a strong showing in their last matchup, where the Guardians secured a victory, they look to capitalize on their current momentum. With a record of 24-17, the Guardians are enjoying a solid season, while the Brewers, languishing at 20-22, are struggling to find their footing.

The Guardians are projected to start Logan Allen, a left-hander who has had a mixed season thus far, posting a 1-2 record and an average ERA of 4.33. However, advanced metrics suggest that Allen might have been a bit fortunate, with a higher xFIP of 5.36. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, allowing approximately 2.9 earned runs and striking out around 4.0 batters on average. His struggles include allowing a concerning 5.6 hits and 1.9 walks per outing.

On the other side, the Brewers will send out Quinn Priester, who holds a 1-1 record with a less-than-ideal ERA of 5.08. Priester’s projections indicate he will pitch about 5.1 innings, yielding 2.8 earned runs while striking out 3.3 batters. Both pitchers are facing offenses that have not excelled this season. The Guardians rank 19th in overall offensive output, while the Brewers sit at 24th, making this matchup a potential battleground for the pitchers.

Despite the Guardians’ average ranking in batting, their bullpen is rated 8th, showing depth that could be crucial in close games. With a Game Total of 9.0 runs indicating a high-scoring potential, this matchup could swing either way. The Guardians, favored with a moneyline of -125, look to leverage their home advantage to extend their winning streak and pressure the struggling Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Considering that flyball hitters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester and his 51.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome spot in today’s outing going up against 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Rhys Hoskins pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Logan Allen’s slider utilization has increased by 9.7% from last season to this one (18.8% to 28.5%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Daniel Schneemann has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 99.4-mph average to last season’s 90.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Daniel Schneemann, Bo Naylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-135)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+160/-205)
  Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+11.35 Units / 45% ROI)