Player Prop Picks for Mets vs Braves – 6/18/2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the New York Mets at Truist Park on June 18, 2025, in a pivotal National League East matchup. This game marks the second in the series, with the Braves coming off a narrow 5-4 victory against the Mets yesterday. The Braves, despite their below-average record of 32-39, are looking to build momentum against a Mets team that boasts an impressive 45-28 record and is currently in solid form.

On the mound, the Braves will start Chris Sale, who has been sensational this season, ranking as the 8th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. Sale’s ERA of 2.79 is excellent, and he projects to strike out an impressive 7.4 batters while allowing just 2.3 earned runs over an average of 5.8 innings. However, he does have a tendency to allow a high number of hits, with a projection of 5.0 today, which could be concerning against a powerful Mets lineup that ranks 6th in MLB with 93 home runs.

The Mets will counter with Paul Blackburn, who has struggled significantly this season, holding a poor ERA of 6.75. Although Blackburn’s xFIP suggests he may improve, his current projections indicate he will likely pitch only 4.4 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.2 hits. This matchup heavily favors Sale, especially given the Braves’ offense, while ranking 16th overall, has shown signs of life recently.

With the Braves being favored heavily with a moneyline of -205, this game offers a unique opportunity for bettors to capitalize on Sale’s elite status and the Braves’ potential to exploit Blackburn’s vulnerabilities. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a tightly contested affair, but the Braves are positioned well to secure another win.

New York Mets Insights

• Paul Blackburn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Paul Blackburn’s 91.2-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 18th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Hitters such as Starling Marte with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Sale who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Atlanta Braves – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-225)
  Chris Sale is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #24 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ozzie Albies is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Ronald Acuna Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+7.05 Units / 19% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 51% ROI)
• Luis Torrens – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+195/-260)
  Luis Torrens has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 51% ROI)