Player Prop Picks for Brewers vs Giants – 4/24/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Francisco Giants

On April 24, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park in the fourth game of their series. The Giants are currently enjoying a solid season, holding a record of 16-9, while the Brewers are slightly behind at 13-12. With both teams vying for better standings, this matchup carries significance as the Giants look to maintain their position within the competitive National League.

In their last matchup, the Giants faced off against the Brewers and emerged victorious, keeping their momentum rolling. The Giants’ ace, Landen Roupp, is slated to start, bringing with him a 2-1 record and an ERA of 4.09. While that ERA may suggest he’s been somewhat average, his 2.81 xFIP indicates he has been a tad unlucky, giving him the potential to outperform his numbers moving forward. Roupp’s strikeout projection of 5.2 batters per game aligns with an average expectation, but his projections for walks and hits allowed raise some concerns.

On the mound for the Brewers will be Tobias Myers, who has struggled this season, currently ranked among the lesser pitchers in MLB. With a projected 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks allowed, the Giants’ offense, which ranks 14th overall, should be well-equipped to capitalize on his shortcomings. Although the Brewers’ offense has shown some life this year, ranking 18th overall, their recent performances have not been enough to instill confidence heading into this game.

Considering all factors, the Giants are legitimate betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying they have a reasonable chance to win. With a strong bullpen ranked 3rd overall and an offense that can take advantage of rough pitching, the Giants appear well-positioned for another victory against the struggling Brewers.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Tobias Myers is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue in the majors in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Brice Turang has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  William Contreras has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Landen Roupp in the 90th percentile among all starters in the game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Matt Chapman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 100.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 84% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.20 Units / 55% ROI)