Player Prop Picks for Blue Jays vs Cubs – 8/18/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on August 18, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Cubs hold a record of 61-63, while the Blue Jays sit at 57-66. After a narrow 3-2 victory over the Blue Jays in their last matchup, the Cubs will look to build on that momentum, especially with Shota Imanaga projected to take the mound.

Imanaga, who ranks as the 56th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has had a solid season with a 9-2 record and a commendable 3.16 ERA. However, his 3.73 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate this year. He projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 1.9 earned runs on average, which could give the Cubs a significant edge against a Blue Jays offense that has struggled, ranking 27th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Bowden Francis, who has had mixed results, is expected to start for the Blue Jays. While he boasts a decent 4.92 ERA, his 4.26 xFIP indicates he might perform better than his current numbers suggest. However, Francis faces a challenge against a Cubs lineup that, despite ranking 20th in overall offense, can draw walks and put pressure on pitchers.

The projections favor the Cubs, who are listed as significant favorites with a moneyline of -180, while the Blue Jays are underdogs at +155. Given the Cubs’ recent victory and Imanaga’s potential for a strong outing, this matchup could tilt in favor of Chicago as they aim to capitalize on the Blue Jays’ offensive struggles.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Considering that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over groundball hitters, Bowden Francis and his 39.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s game going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Addison Barger can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have 6 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Shota Imanaga in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Extreme groundball batters like Patrick Wisdom are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Patrick Wisdom – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Patrick Wisdom pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 60 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 73 games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+15.30 Units / 34% ROI)