Player Prop Picks for Athletics vs Giants – 5/16/2025

Athletics

@

San Francisco Giants

On May 16, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Oakland Athletics at Oracle Park in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Giants enter this game with a solid 25-19 record, while the Athletics sit at an even 22-22, making this a critical series opener for both teams. The Giants are coming off a strong performance where their ace, Logan Webb, continues to impress. Webb, currently ranked as the 6th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, is having an elite season with a 2.60 ERA and a 4-3 win/loss record over 9 starts.

Webb’s ability to generate ground balls (55% GB rate) may serve him well against a powerful Athletics offense that has hit 58 home runs this season, ranking 5th in MLB. However, it’s worth noting that Webb’s high strikeout rate (29.3% K%) could be stymied by the Athletics’ low strikeout tendencies, presenting a unique challenge for him. He projects to pitch around 6.8 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs with 6.5 strikeouts, which should keep the Giants competitive.

On the other side, the Athletics will counter with JP Sears, who has been less impressive this season. Sears has a 2.80 ERA and a win/loss record of 4-2 over 8 starts, but his peripherals suggest he may not sustain this success, as evidenced by his 4.19 xFIP. He projects for 5.5 innings pitched, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could be a vulnerability against a Giants offense that, while ranked 17th overall, is capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

With the Giants boasting the 1st best bullpen in MLB, they will look to leverage their late-game advantages should the matchup remain close. Given the Giants’ current momentum and superior pitching matchup, they should be favored to secure a win in this crucial opening game of the series.

Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  JP Sears’s 2026-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 1st percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball bats like Brent Rooker are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Athletics hitters jointly rank among the elite in the league this year (10th-) when it comes to their 89.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Considering that flyball batters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Logan Webb and his 55.6% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this matchup matching up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+165)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 away games (+8.10 Units / 33% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+850/-2200)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+15.45 Units / 154% ROI)