Player Prop Odds for Rockies vs Cubs – Wednesday May 28, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

Chicago Cubs

On May 28, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field for the third game of their series. The Cubs enter this matchup with a strong record of 34-21, while the Rockies are struggling at 9-46. In their previous game, the Cubs edged out the Rockies with a close 4-3 victory, continuing their impressive season.

Projected starters Matthew Boyd and Tanner Gordon present an intriguing contrast. Boyd, a left-handed pitcher, is ranked as the 48th best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his talent with a solid 4-2 record and an impressive 3.42 ERA. In his last outing, Boyd struggled slightly, allowing four earned runs over four innings, but his overall season performance indicates he can bounce back effectively. Meanwhile, Tanner Gordon, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough start to the season, with a 1-1 record and a 4.38 ERA. Although his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for better luck, his recent performance has not yet translated into consistent results.

The Cubs boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their 4.84 implied team total for this game. Their ability to hit for power is evident, ranking 4th in home runs with 78 this season. In contrast, the Rockies rank 29th in offense and 30th in batting average, leaving them in a difficult position against a potent Cubs lineup.

With the Cubs’ strong batting and Boyd’s potential to limit damage against a weak Rockies offense, they are positioned as significant favorites in this matchup. Bettors should keep an eye on the trends, as the Cubs look to solidify their standing in the National League.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+235)
  Considering the 2.05 difference between Tanner Gordon’s 7.52 ERA and his 5.47 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season and should positively regress the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Typically, bats like Mickey Moniak who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Matthew Boyd.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Ryan McMahon has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-320)
  In his previous game started, Matthew Boyd was in good form and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Michael Busch is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+130/-170)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 26 away games (+17.25 Units / 48% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Hunter Goodman has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)