Player Prop Odds for Reds vs Pirates – Saturday August 09, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 9, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will face the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in a crucial National League Central matchup. In their previous meeting, the Pirates pulled off a 3-2 victory, showcasing their ability to edge out tough competition despite their struggles this season. The Pirates currently sit at 51-66, while the Reds are slightly better at 60-57, earning them an average ranking this year.

Starting for the Pirates is Braxton Ashcraft, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season, posting a 3-2 record with a solid 3.24 ERA. However, his advanced metrics suggest he might have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 3.96, indicating potential regression. Ashcraft’s struggles are compounded by his projections, where he is expected to pitch only 4.3 innings while allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs and striking out just 3.6 batters. The Pirates’ offense ranks as the 30th worst in MLB, which can make it difficult for Ashcraft to secure a win.

The Reds counter with Nick Martinez, who has been more consistent this season, holding a 9-9 record with an ERA of 4.66. Martinez’s metrics reflect he might have been unlucky, with a projected 4.09 xERA suggesting room for improvement. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing about 2.7 earned runs, with strikeouts averaging at 4.2. The Reds’ offense, while not elite, ranks 18th overall, providing a decent backdrop for Martinez to work with.

Given the Pirates’ struggles and the Reds’ ability to capitalize on their pitching matchup, this game could produce a favorable outcome for Cincinnati. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive game ahead. Bettors might find value in the Reds, looking to capitalize on their average offensive performance against a struggling Pirates lineup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Martinez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Martinez to throw 85 pitches in this game (17th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Spencer Steer is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#3-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Braxton Ashcraft will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Joey Bart is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh’s 92.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #8 team in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 53 of their last 84 games (+19.30 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 81 games (+22.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 32% ROI)