Arizona Diamondbacks
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)+100
The Milwaukee Brewers host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field on September 19, 2024, in an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are in the midst of strong seasons, with the Brewers sporting an 88-64 record and the Diamondbacks sitting at 84-68. The Brewers currently hold a playoff spot, but the divisional title remains in play. As this marks the first game of the series, both clubs are looking to set the tone in their pursuit of postseason ambitions.
On the mound, Milwaukee will send Tobias Myers, who’s had a solid season with a 3.07 ERA, but some metrics like his 3.99 xFIP suggest he’s been a bit fortunate. Despite this statistical nuance, his record of 8-5 across 23 starts indicates resilience. On the other side, Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt takes the hill with a 4.81 ERA, but his 3.74 xFIP suggests he’s performed better than surface numbers indicate. His nine wins in 29 starts underscore his competence.
Offensively, the Brewers and Diamondbacks both bring heat, with Arizona boasting the top-ranked offense in MLB and Milwaukee not far behind, ranking 8th. The Diamondbacks excel in power, ranking 4th in home runs, while the Brewers have been aggressive on the basepaths, holding the 3rd spot in stolen bases.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Brewers a slight 53% win probability, as opposed to a 49% implied by betting markets. This suggests there might be value in backing Milwaukee. Recent performances bolster this view, as Rhys Hoskins has been swinging a hot bat for the Brew Crew, delivering a .316 average and two homers over the past week. Pavin Smith has been equally impressive for the Diamondbacks with a .471 average, setting the stage for an exciting face-off.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 145 games (+9.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 88 games (+27.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)