Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Tigers vs Guardians – July 23, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians look to bounce back in their American League Central matchup against the Detroit Tigers on July 23, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Guardians, currently holding a strong 59-40 record and leading the division, are having an impressive season. Conversely, the Tigers, sitting at 50-51, have had an average season thus far. The Guardians dropped their last game against the Tigers on July 22, suffering an 8-2 defeat.

Cleveland will send right-hander Xzavion Curry to the mound. Curry, who has struggled this season with a 5.19 ERA and an 0-2 record in three starts, is ranked #320 among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His last outing was particularly rough, allowing six earned runs on six hits and two walks over just three innings. Despite these struggles, the Guardians’ bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB by Power Rankings, could provide some much-needed relief.

Detroit counters with left-hander Tyler Holton, who has had a solid year with a 3.17 ERA in 39 appearances, primarily out of the bullpen. Holton’s 4.00 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. His innings projection for this game is low, indicating he might not go deep, but the Tigers’ bullpen, ranked 6th, should be reliable.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 12th in MLB this season, a middle-of-the-pack performance. Their lineup, led by Jose Ramirez, who boasts a .273 batting average and 23 home runs, has been average in terms of batting average and power but excels in stolen bases, ranking 10th. On the other hand, the Tigers’ offense has struggled, ranking 25th overall with a poor team batting average and low stolen base numbers.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Guardians a 52% win probability, slightly higher than the implied 55% from betting markets. With the Guardians motivated to even the series and their bullpen standing strong, they appear well-positioned to capitalize on Holton’s potential regression and secure a victory. Expect a close contest with the Guardians having a slight edge.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Zach McKinstry has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tyler Holton – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-135)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan’s true offensive skill to be a .310, implying that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .080 deviation between that mark and his actual .390 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 84 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+125/-160)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)