Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Rays vs Yankees – July 30, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 30, 2025, both teams find themselves in a competitive American League East matchup. The Yankees currently hold a record of 58-49, positioning them as a contender for a Wild Card spot, while the Rays sit at 54-54, just above .500. In their last game, the Yankees managed a solid victory, showcasing their powerful offense.

The Yankees are projected to start right-handed pitcher Will Warren, who has had an average season with a 6-5 record and a 4.82 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP is 1.26 points lower than his ERA. Warren is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow an average of 2.5 earned runs. Meanwhile, Zack Littell, also a right-hander for the Rays, has a more favorable ERA of 3.72 but is considered to have been lucky this season, as indicated by his higher SIERA and xERA.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading the league with 170 home runs this season. This potent lineup could present challenges for Littell, a high-flyball pitcher. Conversely, the Rays rank 13th in MLB, but their 4th best batting average indicates they can hit for contact. However, they may struggle against a Yankees pitching staff that has been performing well recently.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, this matchup promises to be an exciting one. The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -140, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities and the projections that favor them in this contest.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all SPs, Zack Littell’s fastball spin rate of 2012 rpm is in the 6th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (55% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect negative regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  Recording 14.3 outs per start this year on average, Will Warren ranks in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Giancarlo Stanton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Giancarlo Stanton has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 96.6-mph over the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Yankees bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 42 games at home (+9.42 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+13.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.05 Units / 35% ROI)