Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Mets vs Dodgers – October 20, 2024

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets at Dodger Stadium on October 20, 2024, this National League Championship matchup promises to be intense. The Dodgers, with a 58% chance to win according to THE BAT X, are favored over the Mets, who have a 43% implied win probability. After losing to the Mets 12-6 just two days ago, the Dodgers aim to bounce back in Game 6 of the series.

Michael Kopech takes the mound for the Dodgers. Despite his solid 3.46 ERA, advanced metrics suggest he’s been fortunate this season, reflected by his 4.02 FIP. It’s worth noting that Kopech has been primarily a bullpen pitcher with zero starts this year, making his outing a fascinating watch against a high-power Mets lineup that ranks 4th in home runs. The Mets’ patience at the plate could also exploit Kopech’s high walk rate.

The Mets counter with Sean Manaea, an average pitcher according to power rankings, boasting a 3.47 ERA. Like Kopech, Manaea’s metrics point to some luck, with a 4.04 xFIP. He faces the daunting task of taming the Dodgers’ top-ranked offense, which leads MLB in home runs. The Dodgers’ power could take advantage of Manaea’s flyball tendencies, potentially turning them into long balls.

Offensively, both teams pack a punch. The Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani and the Mets’ Francisco Lindor have been standout performers this season. Recently, Max Muncy has been on a tear for Los Angeles, while Jesse Winker has impressed for New York.

This game could turn into a slugfest with both pitchers’ susceptibility to the long ball and powerful offenses on each side. With the Dodgers’ bullpen ranking 3rd and the Mets’ 2nd, late-inning heroics could very well decide this crucial game.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to league average, Sean Manaea has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Starling Marte in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• The New York Mets (22.6% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the most strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Michael Kopech – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Michael Kopech in the 88th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Will Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (86% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 106 games (+25.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+125)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 123 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Shohei Ohtani has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.95 Units / 26% ROI)