Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Dodgers vs D-Backs – August 31, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers are set for a crucial matchup on August 31, 2024, following a thrilling game yesterday where the Dodgers edged out the Diamondbacks 10-9. With the playoff race heating up, this National League West clash holds significant weight for both teams, especially the Diamondbacks, who currently sit at 76-59, while the Dodgers boast an impressive 81-54 record.

Merrill Kelly is projected to take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Although he has a solid Win/Loss record of 4-0 this season, his ERA of 3.98 suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune, as indicated by his 5.18 xERA. Kelly’s high flyball rate (37 FB%) could pose a challenge against a Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB with 139 home runs, making this a potentially dangerous matchup for him.

On the other side, Gavin Stone will start for the Dodgers. With a strong Win/Loss record of 11-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.33, he has been a reliable presence on the mound. However, his projections indicate he might struggle to pitch deep into the game, averaging only 4.9 innings and allowing around 2.7 earned runs.

The Diamondbacks have the 2nd best offense in MLB, which could provide them with a fighting chance against Stone. Their best hitter, Corbin Carroll, has been on fire lately, boasting a 1.407 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, the projections suggest the Diamondbacks will score around 4.91 runs today, while the Dodgers are expected to put up 5.80 runs, reflecting their potent offensive capabilities.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Gavin Stone – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Stone in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Shohei Ohtani has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.1-mph to 97.9-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-135)
  The best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Joc Pederson has been lucky this year, notching a .403 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .354 — a .049 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 53 games (+21.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 72 games (+9.15 Units / 12% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 42 games (+14.90 Units / 35% ROI)