Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Cubs vs D-Backs – March 30, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks welcome the Chicago Cubs to Chase Field for the fourth game of their series on March 30, 2025. Both teams are struggling early in the season, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 1-2 and the Cubs at 2-3. In their last matchup on March 29, the Diamondbacks lost a close game to the Cubs by a score of 4-3, continuing their tough start.

Arizona’s offense is proving to be a bright spot amidst their troubles, ranking 1st in MLB this season. They boast an impressive team batting average and are 5th in home runs, suggesting that their hitting prowess could make a difference against Chicago’s pitching today. However, the Diamondbacks are projected to start Eduardo Rodriguez, who has had a rough outing recently, averaging only 4.7 innings pitched with a concerning 4.9 hits allowed per game. His Power Rankings position places him at 99th among starting pitchers, indicating an average performance level.

In contrast, the Cubs will send Matthew Boyd to the mound. With a Power Rankings position of 77th, Boyd is slightly above average and is coming off a solid outing where he pitched 5 innings and allowed just 1 earned run. However, both pitchers are left-handed, which could favor the Diamondbacks’ strong offensive lineup.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close matchup, favoring the Diamondbacks with a moneyline of -115. The Diamondbacks have a high implied team total of 4.55 runs, suggesting that their potent offense might find success today, especially against a Cubs bullpen ranked 28th in MLB. As such, Arizona’s bats could ultimately provide the edge they need to turn their season around.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Matthew Boyd’s 92-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season ranks in the 25th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under Hits
  Matthew Shaw has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Eduardo Rodriguez to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Naylor can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a group have been among the best in baseball since the start of last season (10th-) as it relates to their 89.1-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 121 games (+28.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+10.60 Units / 46% ROI)
• Garrett Hampson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Garrett Hampson has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.95 Units / 78% ROI)