Player Prop Bets for Phillies vs Nationals – August 14th, 2025

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Washington Nationals

As the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Washington Nationals on August 14, 2025, both teams find themselves in distinctly different situations in the National League East. The Phillies are in solid contention for a playoff spot, holding a 69-51 record this season, while the Nationals are struggling with a disappointing 48-72 record, marking a tough year for the franchise.

In their most recent encounter, the Nationals managed to secure a narrow victory over the Phillies, winning 8-7. Meanwhile, the Phillies’ last outing was a rough one, as they suffered a shutout loss, falling 8-0 to their opponent. This game marks the first of a crucial series, and the stakes are high for Philadelphia as they aim to rebound from their recent defeat.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Brad Lord, a right-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season. Lord boasts a solid ERA of 3.28, but his xERA sits at 4.39, suggesting that he may have been fortunate thus far and could face challenges moving forward. He has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks on average today.

In contrast, the Phillies will counter with Jesus Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher who has been performing well this season with an 11-5 record and an ERA of 4.20. Luzardo’s projections are encouraging, as he is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings while allowing only 2.3 earned runs. His ability to generate strikeouts—averaging 7.0 per game—will be crucial against a Nationals offense that ranks as the 23rd best in MLB.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the projections suggest that the Phillies have an implied team total of 4.85 runs, indicating a favorable offensive outlook. The Nationals, however, have a tougher road ahead, as they are projected to score just 3.65 runs. As the teams clash at Nationals Park, all eyes will be on whether the Phillies can capitalize on their offensive prowess to secure a win and regain momentum in this pivotal matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider percentage has risen by 7.8% from last year to this one (29.2% to 37%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has had some very poor luck this year. His .290 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  Among every team today, the 4th-weakest outfield defense is that of the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Paul DeJong is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Washington Nationals (26.1% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy set of batters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.95 Units / 21% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 60 away games (+17.00 Units / 24% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  James Wood has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 38% ROI)