Player Prop Bets for Nationals vs Braves – August 23rd, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Washington Nationals on August 23, 2024, they enter this matchup with a record of 68-59, positioning them in a solid spot within the National League East. The Braves are enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals, with a record of 58-70, are struggling and currently sit at the bottom of the division. This game marks the first of a series between these two teams, and the stakes are high for the Braves as they look to build momentum.

In their most recent outing, the Braves showcased their pitching prowess with Chris Sale projected to take the mound. Sale has been exceptional this season, boasting a 14-3 record and an impressive 2.62 ERA, making him the 4th best starting pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He is expected to pitch around 6.3 innings while allowing just 1.7 earned runs on average—a reflection of his elite status. However, he faces a challenge against a Nationals offense that ranks 22nd in MLB, struggling to generate consistent runs.

On the other side, MacKenzie Gore will be starting for the Nationals. Although he has made 25 starts this season, his 4.66 ERA and 7-11 record suggest he has not found the same success as Sale. The projections indicate that Gore may allow about 3.0 earned runs, which could be problematic given the Braves’ offense, ranked 13th overall and 10th in home runs.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Braves as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -265, bettors may see value in Atlanta’s ability to capitalize on their offensive strengths against a struggling Nationals squad.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Over his last 3 GS, MacKenzie Gore has experienced a sizeable fall off in his fastball velocity: from 95.5 mph over the entire season to 94.4 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Alex Call – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Alex Call is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Washington Nationals projected batting order today (.290 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .302 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to average, Chris Sale has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.3 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Marcell Ozuna has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.6-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Atlanta Braves – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 102 games (+23.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+9.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 35 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)