Player Prop Bets for Giants vs D-Backs – September 17th, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on September 17, 2025, both teams are in the midst of average seasons, with the D-Backs holding a record of 77-75 and the Giants at 75-76. This matchup is crucial as it marks the third game in a series that could impact their standings as they vie for a Wild Card spot.

In their previous game, the Diamondbacks showcased their offensive prowess, with their best hitter contributing significantly, recording 10 hits and 6 RBIs over the last week. This performance is a testament to the D-Backs’ offense, which ranks 5th in MLB, indicating their ability to generate runs effectively. Conversely, the Giants’ offense struggles, sitting at 21st overall. Their lack of production could be a significant factor in this matchup.

On the mound, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to start for the Diamondbacks. Despite ranking 162nd among starting pitchers, his 4.00 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky this season, indicating potential for improvement. Pfaadt’s recent performances show he averages 5.3 innings pitched and allows 2.8 earned runs, but he struggles with hits and walks.

Justin Verlander, starting for the Giants, has a solid ERA of 3.94, ranking him 88th among pitchers. However, his 4.54 xFIP indicates he may be due for a downturn. Verlander’s performance will be crucial, especially as he faces a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

With the game total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets expect a close contest, reflected in both teams’ moneylines at -110. The D-Backs’ high implied team total of 4.50 runs suggests they may have the edge in this matchup, particularly given their offensive capabilities against a struggling Giants’ lineup.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-110)
  The San Francisco Giants outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Willy Adames – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  In the past week’s worth of games, Willy Adames’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.3% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Throwing 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  James McCann has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year’s 86.9-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks hitters as a group grade out 9th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 9.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 42 of their last 64 games at home (+23.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+145/-190)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Walks Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)