Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Marlins – July 4th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Miami Marlins

As the Milwaukee Brewers visit LoanDepot Park to face the Miami Marlins on July 4, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this National League matchup. The Brewers, currently in good form with a record of 48-39, are aiming to solidify their position in the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Marlins, sitting at 39-46 and struggling this season, are keen to turn things around.

In their last outing, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively against the Marlins. They’ll send Quinn Priester to the mound, who has been solid this year with a 6-2 record and a stellar 3.35 ERA. However, projections suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his 3.98 FIP indicates potential for regression. Priester’s high groundball rate (58 GB%) could work in his favor against a Marlins offense that ranks 26th in home runs this season.

Sandy Alcantara, projected to start for the Marlins, has had a challenging year with a 4-8 record and a troubling 6.98 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, his peripherals suggest he’s been unlucky, as evidenced by his 4.53 xFIP. Alcantara projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, which is decent, but his tendency to give up 5.5 hits and 1.7 walks could spell trouble.

With the Marlins’ offense ranking 17th overall, they’ll need to capitalize on any opportunities against Priester. The game’s total is set at 8.0 runs, and the projections indicate a close contest, with Miami’s moneyline at +100 and Milwaukee’s at -120. The Brewers may have the edge, but the Marlins will look to exploit any weaknesses in Priester’s game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Rhys Hoskins has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 97.9-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 team in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  Given the 2.91 gap between Sandy Alcantara’s 6.97 ERA and his 4.06 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to see positive regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under Total Bases
  Typically, hitters like Dane Myers who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under Total Bases
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+14.45 Units / 68% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 86 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-150/+120)
  Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)