Player Prop Bets for Brewers vs Marlins – July 4th, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Miami Marlins

On July 4, 2025, the Miami Marlins are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers at LoanDepot Park, kicking off a new series between these two National League teams. Miami is currently struggling with a record of 39-46, while Milwaukee sits at a solid 48-39, marking them as the stronger team in this matchup. Notably, the Marlins won their previous game against the San Diego Padres, 4-1, while the Brewers suffered a close defeat to the San Francisco Giants, 3-2.

The Marlins will rely on their ace, Sandy Alcantara, projected to start against the Brewers’ Quinn Priester. Alcantara’s performance has been a rollercoaster this season, as evidenced by his 4-8 record and an alarming 6.98 ERA. Despite being ranked the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB, the projections suggest he could see an uptick in performance; he is projected to pitch 6.1 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs. However, his tendency to give up 5.6 hits and 1.6 walks could be detrimental against a Brewers lineup that, while average overall, has the ability to capitalize on mistakes.

Quinn Priester, on the other hand, boasts a solid 6-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.35, suggesting he’s had a good run this season. The projections indicate he is likely to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which bodes well for the Brewers.

The Marlins offense ranks 18th in the league, struggling particularly with power—ranking 26th in home runs. Conversely, the Brewers’ offense, although also underwhelming in home runs (22nd), ranks 3rd in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the bases. This creates an intriguing dynamic, as the Marlins’ lack of power could play into Priester’s ground-ball tendencies.

With Miami listed as an underdog at +115, there may be value in their performance today, especially given their recent win and the potential for Alcantara to bounce back from his struggles.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Quinn Priester (53% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Caleb Durbin has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.4-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The 6.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #30 team in the game this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Given the 2.91 gap between Sandy Alcantara’s 6.97 ERA and his 4.06 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year and ought to see positive regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Typically, hitters like Dane Myers who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Dane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+14.45 Units / 68% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 86 games (+10.70 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-155/+120)
  Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)