Player Prop Bets for Astros vs Rays – May 21st, 2025

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Houston Astros on May 21, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position in the American League standings. With a record of 22-26, the Rays are struggling to find their footing this season, sitting below .500. The Astros, on the other hand, are slightly above average at 25-23, showcasing a more competitive edge.

In their previous matchup on May 20, the Rays managed a narrow victory, winning 3-2, while the Astros faced disappointment with the same scoreline, marking a tough loss. This game is the third in the series, and both teams will look to gain momentum as they head into this crucial encounter.

On the mound, the Rays are projected to start Taj Bradley, who has had an up-and-down season. Although he ranks as the 99th best starting pitcher in MLB, his 4.80 ERA suggests he has been unlucky and may improve. In his last outing, Bradley struggled, allowing 5 earned runs over 4 innings. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings today, allowing around 3 earned runs, which could be a concern against a lineup like Houston’s.

The Astros will counter with Hunter Brown, an elite pitcher ranked 12th in MLB with a stellar 1.43 ERA. Brown’s last start was particularly impressive, going a complete game while allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters. He projects similarly in terms of innings but is expected to allow only 2.2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rays rank 24th in MLB, struggling particularly with home runs, sitting 26th in that category. In contrast, the Astros are average offensively but will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes made by Bradley.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the odds favor the Astros, who have an implied team total of 4.66 runs compared to the Rays’ 3.84 runs. Despite the recent victory for Tampa Bay, the pitching matchup heavily leans in favor of Houston, making this an intriguing contest for bettors.

Houston Astros Insights

• Hunter Brown – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Among all SPs, Hunter Brown’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph ranks in the 94th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.2-mph figure last season has lowered to 81.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Given that flyball batters have a sizeable edge over groundball pitchers, Taj Bradley and his 34.9% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough spot in this outing being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Brown.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-105/-125)
  Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.95 Units / 47% ROI)