Player Prop Bets for Astros vs Brewers – May 5th, 2025

Houston Astros

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Houston Astros on May 5, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this Interleague matchup. The Brewers sit at 17-18, having recently secured a shutout victory against the Cincinnati Reds, winning 4-0 on May 4. Meanwhile, the Astros, with a record of 17-16, are coming off a close loss to the Seattle Mariners, falling 5-4.

This game marks the first in a series between these two teams, and both will be relying on their starting pitchers to set the tone. Tobias Myers, projected to start for the Brewers, has struggled this season, ranking as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. His ERA stands at a concerning 5.14, and he’s projected to allow 2.7 earned runs over an average of 5.7 innings today. However, he faces an Astros offense that has been relatively low-strikeout, which could play to his advantage.

On the other side, Ronel Blanco takes the mound for the Astros. His ERA is slightly better at 5.08, but he has been marked as unlucky this season. With a projected xERA of 3.47, there’s potential for improvement. Blanco’s last outing was solid, as he pitched 5 innings with 3 earned runs and 6 strikeouts, indicating he can be effective if he finds his rhythm.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 23rd in MLB, while the Astros sit at 18th. Milwaukee’s best hitter has been consistent, boasting a .315 batting average, but the overall lack of power—ranking 24th in home runs—could hinder their performance against a capable Astros bullpen, ranked 14th in MLB.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and both teams evenly matched in the betting markets, this game promises to be closely contested. The Brewers may have the edge at home, but both teams will need to capitalize on opportunities to secure a win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ronel Blanco’s curveball usage has spiked by 11.4% from last year to this one (9.5% to 20.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.2-mph mark last year has dropped off to 81.3-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Houston Astros have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-110)
  Among all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Christian Yelich usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Ronel Blanco.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.35 Units / 62% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in their last 10 games (+5.00 Units / 45% ROI)
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Jose Altuve has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.75 Units / 52% ROI)