Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
(-110/-110)-145
As the Milwaukee Brewers host the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on April 6, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Brewers sit at 4-5, while the Reds trail slightly with a 3-6 record. Both teams are desperate for a win after last night’s matchup, which saw the Brewers edge out the Reds in a tightly contested game.
Chad Patrick takes the mound for Milwaukee, projected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings. Despite being ranked 225th among starting pitchers in MLB, his impressive 3.18 ERA suggests he’s had some good fortune this season, as indicated by his 5.42 xFIP. Patrick’s control issues, highlighted by a high walk rate of 15.4%, could be less of a concern against a Reds lineup that ranks 3rd in fewest walks taken.
Conversely, Carson Spiers will start for Cincinnati. Although his ERA of 1.50 is excellent, his 4.57 xFIP points to potential regression. Spiers has struggled with a 0-1 record and is projected to pitch just 4.9 innings, which could put pressure on a Reds bullpen ranked 20th overall.
Offensively, both teams have underwhelming numbers, with the Brewers ranking 43rd in MLB and the Reds at 57th. However, the Brewers’ best hitter has been performing well, recording a .385 batting average over the last week. With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Brewers are favored with a moneyline of -145, suggesting a strong chance to build on their recent victory and capitalize on the Reds’ weaknesses.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Carson Spiers is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.2) implies that TJ Friedl has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his 21.0 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Today’s version of the Reds projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .320 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Milwaukee’s 88.5-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in the majors: #22 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+6.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 118 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-145/+115)Brice Turang has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 43% ROI)