Player Predictions for Rays vs Mariners – August 8, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 8, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the American League. The Mariners currently hold a record of 63-53, putting them in a favorable position for a playoff push, while the Rays sit at 57-59, struggling to find consistency this season.

In their last outing, the Seattle Mariners showcased their pitching prowess, with Luis Castillo leading the way and achieving a complete game shutout in a dominant performance. On the mound today, Castillo is projected to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.5 earned runs on average, supported by a solid offense that ranks as the 10th best in MLB. The Mariners excel in power-hitting, ranking 4th in home runs this season, a testament to their ability to capitalize on pitches.

Conversely, the Rays will send Drew Rasmussen to the mound, who has been exceptional with a 2.81 ERA this year. However, the projections suggest that he might see a drop in performance due to a higher xFIP of 3.44. Rasmussen’s ability to generate ground balls (51% GB%) could be pivotal against the Mariners’ powerful lineup, but the Rays offense, ranking 14th overall, will need to find a way to match the Mariners’ output.

The game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potential pitching duel, and the betting odds favor the Mariners with a moneyline of -130. Given the statistics, this matchup provides an interesting angle for bettors looking to capitalize on the Mariners’ current form against an average Rays team. With both offenses looking to bolster their confidence, this game could be crucial for the Mariners as they seek to maintain their upward momentum.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Drew Rasmussen’s 2488-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 91st percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Chandler Simpson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175/+135)
  Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 97 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.60 Units / 14% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 25% ROI)