Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners
(-105/-115)-130
The Seattle Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 8, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. The Mariners currently sit at 63-53, enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays trail with a 57-59 record, reflecting an average performance. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after their recent games—Seattle edged out Tampa Bay 4-3, while the Rays managed a narrow 5-4 victory in their last outing.
On the mound, the Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, who has been solid with an 8-6 record and a 3.22 ERA. Although his 4.13 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season, his ability to pitch deep into games is a plus, as he averages 6.1 innings per start. Castillo’s strikeout projection of 5.6 batters is average, but his tendency to allow 5.3 hits and 1.4 walks could be concerning against a Rays lineup that ranks 14th in MLB offense.
Drew Rasmussen, set to pitch for the Rays, boasts a 9-5 record and an impressive 2.81 ERA. His 3.44 xFIP indicates he may also be due for some regression, but his recent form is promising—he threw 5 innings of scoreless ball in his last start on August 2, 2025. With a high groundball rate of 51%, Rasmussen will be tested against the Mariners’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd in home runs this season.
Despite the Mariners’ lower implied team total of 3.66 runs, the projections indicate they could outperform expectations against a Rays bullpen, ranked 1st overall. With their strong offensive capabilities and Castillo’s solid performance, Seattle has a favorable opportunity to secure a win in this matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+110)The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Chandler Simpson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Josh Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)Compared to league average, Luis Castillo has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 4.5 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Extreme groundball hitters like Eugenio Suarez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 97 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.45 Units / 31% ROI)