Player Predictions for Blue Jays vs Guardians – June 26, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians will host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 26, 2025, in the third game of their series at Progressive Field. Both teams are in the thick of competitive play, with the Guardians sitting at 40-38, while the Blue Jays hold a slightly better record at 42-37. The Guardians have struggled offensively, ranking 25th in MLB in team batting average and 25th in overall offense, while the Blue Jays are more respectable at 13th overall and 2nd in batting average.

In their previous game, the Guardians secured a narrow victory, which could provide a much-needed boost as they face off against the Blue Jays. Tanner Bibee, the Guardians’ projected starter, boasts a commendable ERA of 3.86. However, he may be due for a regression, as his 4.60 FIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate. Bibee’s performance will be critical, especially given his struggles with allowing hits and walks. Meanwhile, Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays’ starter, has had an average season with a 4.60 ERA, but projections suggest he is likely to improve.

While the Guardians’ bullpen ranks 4th in MLB, the Blue Jays are not far behind at 3rd. This strength could balance out their offensive weaknesses against a solid Blue Jays lineup, which features players performing well lately, including their best hitter who has a 1.113 OPS over the last week.

Betting markets have set both teams’ moneyline at -110, indicating a closely contested matchup. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, which aligns with the average projections for both teams. With the Guardians looking to build on their recent success and take advantage of their home field, it may be an opportunity for bettors to consider their potential edge in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Kevin Gausman’s sinker rate has decreased by 5.3% from last season to this one (5.4% to 0.1%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Andres Gimenez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.4-mph dropping to 79.5-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Toronto Blue Jays (17.1 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of batters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Tanner Bibee’s fastball spin rate has decreased 116 rpm this year (2245 rpm) below where it was last season (2361 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Toronto’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Daniel Schneemann, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 games (+8.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+4.90 Units / 49% ROI)