Player Insights for Rays vs Mariners – 8/09/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 9, 2025, they find themselves in a strong position, boasting a 64-53 record. This matchup marks the second game in the series, following a close contest yesterday. The Mariners are not only having an above-average season, but they also sit firmly in the hunt for playoff positioning. Conversely, the Rays, with a record of 57-60, are in a more precarious situation, struggling to find consistency.

Seattle will send Logan Evans to the mound, who has had a mixed season. While he holds a 5-4 record and an average ERA of 4.30, advanced metrics suggest he may be living on borrowed time, with a 5.52 xERA indicating he could perform worse moving forward. In contrast, Tampa Bay will counter with Joe Boyle, who, despite an impressive 2.30 ERA, also has a concerning 4.62 xFIP. Both pitchers are right-handed, and each has faced their share of challenges this season, suggesting a potential advantage for the Mariners’ potent lineup.

Seattle’s offense ranks 12th overall, showcasing a blend of power and speed. With 166 home runs this season, they rank 3rd in the league, while also being 3rd in stolen bases. Their ability to capitalize on Boyle’s high flyball rate could lead to fireworks at T-Mobile Park. The projections suggest a modest run total of 8.0, but the Mariners’ home advantage and offensive prowess could see them exceed that.

With a moneyline set at -130 for the Mariners, betting markets indicate a close contest, but with their recent form and hitting capabilities, Seattle looks poised to take the series lead.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Joe Boyle – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Joe Boyle has utilized his slider 6.1% less often this season (32.9%) than he did last season (39%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  When it comes to his batting average, Jake Mangum has had positive variance on his side this year. His .280 BA has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Logan Evans’s 87-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 1st percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Seattle Mariners have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 108 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 58 of their last 100 games (+17.60 Units / 16% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)