Player Insights for Cubs vs Pirates – 8/27/24

Chicago Cubs

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates face off again on August 27, 2024, both teams are looking to gain momentum after an explosive matchup the day before. The Cubs dominated the Pirates, winning 18-8, showcasing their offensive firepower. Currently, the Cubs sit at 66-66, holding a slight edge over the Pirates, who are 62-69 and struggling this season.

The Cubs are projected to start Justin Steele, who ranks as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a solid 3.07 ERA this season. His last outing was impressive, going 7 innings with only 2 earned runs and striking out 10 batters. In contrast, Jared Jones is set to take the mound for the Pirates. While he has shown promise with a 3.56 ERA, he ranks 64th among MLB starters and has had a mixed season with a 5-6 record.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled, ranking 28th in MLB, while the Cubs sit in the middle at 16th. The Cubs’ best hitter, Ian Happ, has been consistent with 23 home runs and a .803 OPS this season. Yasmani Grandal has shone for the Pirates recently, but their overall offensive output remains concerning.

Betting markets reflect this matchup as competitive, with the Cubs favored at -120 and the Pirates at +100. The projections suggest a close game, with the Cubs expected to score 4.94 runs and the Pirates at 4.20. As the Cubs look to build on their recent success, they hold the edge in pitching and a more reliable offense, making them the team to watch in this National League Central clash.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Justin Steele – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
  Justin Steele has tallied 17.6 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.324) suggests that Pete Crow-Armstrong has been unlucky this year with his .283 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• It may be sensible to expect better numbers for the Chicago Cubs offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jared Jones – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jared Jones in the 91st percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates batters as a unit place 10th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 8.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.90 Units / 15% ROI)