Player Analysis for Cubs vs Brewers - October 04, 2025

+120O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-140

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+120)
Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+120)
The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)
Freddy Peralta has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
Brice Turang has seen a big increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.2-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 91.1-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 129 games (+25.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 79 of their last 156 games (+15.70 Units / 7% ROI)
Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 43% ROI)

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