Pirates vs Orioles Prediction and Game Breakdown – Thursday September 11, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles and the Pittsburgh Pirates face off once again on September 11, 2025, for the third game of their series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles are coming off a narrow 2-1 victory over the Pirates in their last matchup, which is a welcome sign as they look to capitalize on any momentum against a struggling opponent.

Both teams are having disappointing seasons, with the Orioles currently sitting at 68-77 and the Pirates at 64-82. Despite their below-average records, the Orioles are projected to have an edge on the mound with Cade Povich slated to start. Povich, however, has had a rocky season, holding a 3-7 record and a 5.16 ERA, suggesting he has struggled to find consistency. His xFIP of 3.91 indicates he may have been unlucky, potentially hinting at a rebound performance.

Conversely, the Pirates will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo boasts an impressive 2.70 ERA but carries a higher xFIP of 4.46, suggesting he might not sustain his current level of success. His ability to generate strikeouts (28.9 K%) could serve him well against a high-strikeout Orioles lineup, which ranks 6th in the league in that category. Given the Orioles’ issues with walks, Oviedo’s high walk rate (13.3 BB%) may not be as detrimental as it typically would be.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB, while the Pirates sit at the bottom with the 30th-ranked offense. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the projections indicate that both teams may struggle to produce runs, making this matchup particularly intriguing for bettors looking for value in a low-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Johan Oviedo – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
  Johan Oviedo has averaged 74.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 5th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Jared Triolo has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 81.4-mph in the last week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Cade Povich will hold the advantage squaring off against 9 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Jeremiah Jackson has been lucky this year, notching a .371 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .292 — a .079 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Jeremiah Jackson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 129 games (+20.28 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 119 games (+22.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Coby Mayo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 53% ROI)