Pirates vs Orioles Game Analysis and Winning Probability – Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Baltimore Orioles

On September 9, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a matchup featuring two struggling teams. The Orioles sit at 66-77 this season, reflecting a below-average performance, while the Pirates are even worse at 64-80, marking their season as a tough one. Both teams are looking to break out of a rough stretch; the Orioles recently lost to the Pirates 5-2, while the Pirates suffered a heavy defeat against the Atlanta Braves, losing 10-2.

The matchup on the mound will showcase right-handed pitcher Kyle Bradish for the Orioles, who holds a solid ERA of 3.60, indicating his potential to improve moving forward given his lower xFIP of 2.27. Bradish’s 0-1 record this season may not reflect his true talent, as he is ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Pirates will counter with Michael Burrows, who has a higher ERA of 4.08 and has been deemed a below-average pitcher this season.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB, driven by their best hitter who has demonstrated recent form with a .333 batting average and two home runs over the last week. Meanwhile, the Pirates’ lineup ranks dead last in MLB, struggling significantly with power—scoring the fewest home runs in the league this season. This discrepancy presents an opportunity for Bradish, a high-flyball pitcher, as he faces a Pirates offense that has little firepower to exploit.

The projections suggest a low-scoring affair, with a game total set at 7.5 runs. Baltimore, currently favored with a moneyline of -150, will look to leverage their pitching and the struggles of the Pirates offense to secure a much-needed victory.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Moneyline (+125)
  Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Bryan Reynolds has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 93.6-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Tommy Pham hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kyle Bradish has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -9.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Dylan Beavers, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-most strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 25.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 132 games (+17.03 Units / 12% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 119 games (+20.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-3000)
  Henry Davis has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+7.00 Units / 175% ROI)