Picks and Betting Line for Rays vs Red Sox Friday, September 27, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

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Boston Red Sox

As September winds down, the American League East matchup between the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park sets the stage for an intriguing game. Both teams are hovering around .500, with the Red Sox at 80-79 and the Rays at 78-81, highlighting their average seasons. While they’re out of the division race, both teams have a chance to set a positive tone heading into the offseason.

Tonight’s pitching duel features Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox and Taj Bradley for the Rays, both ranked as above-average starters. Pivetta, currently the 85th best starting pitcher, sports a 4.21 ERA this season, tempered by an impressive 3.51 xFIP that suggests he’s been a bit unlucky. The Red Sox starter, with 29.1% strikeout rate, is poised to capitalize on Tampa Bay’s high-strikeout offense, ranking 6th in MLB for the most strikeouts. Despite his struggles, Pivetta’s matchup against a Rays lineup bereft of power could work to his advantage, particularly given his tendency for flyballs.

On the other side, Taj Bradley stands as the 71st best starter with a 4.30 ERA and a promising 3.66 xFIP. He faces a potent Boston lineup, 7th best in the league, which thrives in multiple offensive categories. While Bradley has a strong 26.4% strikeout rate, Boston’s offensive prowess may test his ability to limit runs.

The Red Sox batters have shown a well-rounded offensive performance, contrasting with the Rays’ offensive woes, where they rank 27th in categories like batting average and home runs. However, the Rays boast the 1st best bullpen in baseball, providing a late-game edge if needed.

According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, the Red Sox have a slight nod with a 54% win probability, compared to their 55% implied win probability by betting markets, making them the favorites in a close contest. With both teams seeking to make a statement, expect an exciting clash as the first of this series unfolds.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Taj Bradley has relied on his change-up 13.3% more often this year (27.2%) than he did last season (13.9%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Brandon Lowe are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2254 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2315 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Connor Wong is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox have 5 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Connor Wong, Triston Casas, Tyler O’Neill, Trevor Story).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 games (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 154 games (+25.26 Units / 14% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+580/-1100)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+23.85 Units / 199% ROI)