Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs Marlins Monday, September 8, 2025

Washington Nationals

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Miami Marlins

On September 8, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Washington Nationals in the first game of their series at LoanDepot Park. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Marlins sitting at 66-77 and the Nationals at 58-84. The Marlins recently edged out the Nationals in their last matchup, winning 5-4, but the Nationals found some momentum by winning their previous game 6-3.

Miami’s starting pitcher, Janson Junk, has had a mixed season, posting a 6-2 record with a 4.09 ERA. Although his ERA is above average, his 3.08 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, suggesting potential improvement ahead. Junk’s low walk rate of 2.8 BB% could be tested against a Nationals lineup that is among the least patient in the league, ranking 3rd for fewest walks. However, his projected performance for today is concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 5.1 hits and 2.4 earned runs.

On the other hand, Cade Cavalli will take the mound for Washington. With a 2-1 record and a 4.85 ERA, Cavalli is projected to pitch 5.0 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, which is average. He has been effective in his last start, going 5 innings with 2 earned runs and 6 strikeouts. However, both pitchers face lineups that have struggled offensively, with the Marlins ranking 21st and the Nationals 25th in overall offensive production.

Given their current form, the Marlins hold a slight edge with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% chance of victory. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive matchup. With both teams looking to find some rhythm, this game could be pivotal in shaping the remainder of their seasons.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli will “start” for Washington Nationals in today’s game but will be treated as more of an opener and may not pitch more than a couple framess.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Dylan Crews – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  When it comes to his batting average, Dylan Crews has had bad variance on his side this year. His .197 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .235.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Paul DeJong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Miami Marlins Insights

• Janson Junk – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage over Janson Junk in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Otto Lopez has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 7% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (-125)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 72 games (+10.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 116 games (+12.07 Units / 9% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+8.40 Units / 51% ROI)