Picks and Betting Line for Marlins vs Mets Friday, August 29, 2025

Miami Marlins

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New York Mets

The New York Mets will face off against the Miami Marlins on August 29, 2025, at Citi Field in a crucial matchup within the National League East. With both teams in the midst of a challenging stretch, the Mets find themselves with a record of 72-62, showcasing their competitive edge this season, while the Marlins sit at 63-71, struggling to find consistency. In their most recent encounter, the Mets fell to the Marlins 7-4, marking a disappointing outing for a team that has been fighting for playoff positioning.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Jonah Tong, ranked 43rd among MLB starting pitchers, who has had a solid season overall. While he projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings and allow just 2.0 earned runs, his tendency to allow 4.5 hits and 1.6 walks could pose challenges against the Marlins. Meanwhile, Eury Perez for the Marlins, ranked 48th, has shown promise with a 6-3 record and a respectable 3.44 ERA, although he may be due for regression given his higher xFIP of 4.30.

The Mets’ offense ranks 5th in MLB, demonstrating their ability to produce runs, while the Marlins sit in the middle of the pack at 18th. The Mets boast a strong lineup, highlighted by a player with 32 home runs this season, who is currently enjoying a hot streak with a .357 batting average over the past week. In contrast, the Marlins struggle with power, ranking 25th in home runs.

Given these factors, the Mets not only take the field as significant betting favorites with a moneyline of -170 but also have a strong chance to rebound from their previous loss against a Marlins team that has been inconsistent at best. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, bettors may want to consider the Mets as they look to capitalize on their offensive prowess against a Marlins unit facing uphill challenges.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Eury Perez (42.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in New York’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Otto Lopez has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .293 rate is a good deal lower than his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+150)
  The Miami Marlins projected lineup projects as the 4th-weakest on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Jonah Tong – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jonah Tong in the 88th percentile when it comes to his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Starling Marte has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+150)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 away games (+15.70 Units / 42% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-170)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.60 Units / 62% ROI)