Picks and Betting Line for Mariners vs White Sox Monday, May 19, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago White Sox

On May 19, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will visit Guaranteed Rate Field to face the Chicago White Sox in the first game of their series. The Mariners are currently in solid form with a record of 26-19, while the White Sox are struggling at 14-33 this season. Despite this, oddsmakers have the White Sox as significant underdogs, with a moneyline of +175, reflecting a 35% implied win probability. This may not accurately capture the potential for an upset given the matchup.

The starting pitchers present a stark contrast. Davis Martin, projected to start for the White Sox, is ranked 273rd out of approximately 350 pitchers according to advanced metrics, indicating he is among the worst in MLB. He has a decent ERA of 3.65, but his peripherals suggest he has been somewhat lucky this season. Martin projects to pitch only 4.9 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs on average, which could be problematic against a potent Mariners offense that ranks 10th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, Luis Castillo, starting for the Mariners, is significantly more reliable, ranked 89th among MLB pitchers. He also has an ERA of 3.65 but with a higher xFIP of 4.62, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Castillo projects to pitch longer, averaging 5.9 innings and allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could be enough to keep the Mariners in the game against a struggling White Sox lineup that ranks 30th in batting average and 30th in overall offensive production.

With both teams’ recent performances and the disparity in pitching matchups, the Mariners appear well-positioned to capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses. The Game Total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive yet potentially low-scoring affair.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Luis Castillo’s 94.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.4-mph decrease from last year’s 95.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• It may be smart to expect worse results for the Seattle Mariners offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 7th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Davis Martin is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #7 HR venue among all major league stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 23 games (+7.90 Units / 34% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 20% ROI)