Picks and Betting Line for Giants vs Cardinals Sunday, September 7, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals host the San Francisco Giants at Busch Stadium on September 7, 2025, marking the third game of a series that has already piqued interest. Both teams find themselves in the middle of the standings, with the Cardinals at 71-72 and the Giants at 72-70. The Cardinals are considered slight favorites with a moneyline of -150, suggesting a win probability of 57%. This matchup is crucial for both squads as they vie for positioning, even if neither is in contention for their respective divisions.

In their last contest, the Giants managed to pull off a win against the Cardinals, adding pressure to the home team. Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. With a solid record of 12-8 and an ERA of 4.43, he is ranked the 25th best starting pitcher, suggesting he has faced some tough luck this season. His advanced metrics indicate he could perform better than his current numbers suggest. In contrast, the Giants will start Kai-Wei Teng, who has struggled significantly this year, with a record of 2-3 and a concerning ERA of 7.23, ranking him among the worst in MLB.

Despite their offensive struggles—with the Cardinals ranked 22nd and the Giants at 20th—the projections indicate the Cardinals may have the advantage. Their robust bullpen, rated 11th in MLB, could play a critical role in closing out the game, especially when matched against the Giants’ 27th-ranked bullpen. While both teams have their issues, the Cardinals might just capitalize on Teng’s control problems and find ways to score, making them a compelling bet in this matchup despite their average season.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Kai-Wei Teng – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Kai-Wei Teng has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 16.2 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Matt Chapman hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Sonny Gray’s cut-fastball rate has fallen by 5.8% from last year to this one (17.8% to 12%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season’s 91.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese, James Crooks, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+11.65 Units / 11% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 away games (+10.85 Units / 43% ROI)
• Matt Chapman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Matt Chapman has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.30 Units / 50% ROI)