Picks and Betting Guide for White Sox vs Rockies – Sunday, July 06, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and the Chicago White Sox are both in the midst of disappointing seasons, sitting at the bottom of their respective divisions. As they prepare for their matchup on July 6, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their fortunes around. The Rockies currently own a record of 20-69, while the White Sox are slightly better at 30-59.

In their previous game, the White Sox suffered a tough loss, highlighting the struggles of their offense, which ranks dead last in the league. The Rockies, however, have a better offensive ranking at 25th, but they still have considerable room for improvement. Both teams are struggling to find consistency, making this matchup crucial for their morale.

On the mound, Chase Dollander is set to start for the Rockies. Dollander, who has had a rough year with a 2-9 record and an ERA of 6.65, is projected to pitch 4.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs. His xFIP of 4.75 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, so there may be hope for a turnaround. Conversely, Shane Smith will take the mound for the White Sox. Though he has a better ERA of 3.86, projections indicate he may also face challenges, with an expected performance suggesting he could allow 3.1 earned runs over roughly 4.7 innings.

Interestingly, this game marks the third in the series and presents an opportunity for the Rockies to exploit Smith’s high walk rate against a White Sox offense that has not capitalized on such opportunities. Betting markets reflect the close nature of this game, with the Rockies holding a moneyline of -105 and an implied team total of 5.43 runs, while the White Sox are at -115 with an implied total of 5.57 runs. This matchup is critical for both teams as they look to shake off their recent struggles and gain some much-needed momentum.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all starters, Shane Smith’s fastball velocity of 94.7 mph grades out in the 75th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Edgar Quero – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Edgar Quero has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (59% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox projected batting order projects as the 3rd-worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #7 HR venue among all parks in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ryan McMahon has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph dropping to 82.5-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 88 games (+9.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 45 away games (+12.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Chase Meidroth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)