Picks and Betting Guide for White Sox vs Nationals – Friday, September 26, 2025

Chicago White Sox

@

Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to face the Chicago White Sox on September 26, 2025, both teams are struggling through disappointing seasons. The Nationals sit at 65-94, while the White Sox are slightly worse at 58-101. This matchup features two teams with little to play for, but a win could provide a much-needed morale boost for either squad.

In their previous game, the Nationals managed to secure a narrow victory against the White Sox, which could bolster their confidence heading into this series opener. Cade Cavalli, projected to start for Washington, has been somewhat reliable this season, posting a 3-1 record and a 4.23 ERA over 9 starts. Although his strikeout rate is below average at 4.6 strikeouts per game, he is expected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow only 2.0 earned runs, which should keep the Nationals competitive.

Conversely, Yoendrys Gomez takes the mound for Chicago, and his performance has been less than stellar. With a 4.92 ERA, he ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB, and his projections suggest he may struggle against the Nationals’ low-walk offense, which ranks 3rd least in MLB. Gomez’s high walk rate of 10.7% could be a liability if the Nationals can be patient at the plate.

Offensively, the Nationals rank 25th in MLB, while the White Sox fare even worse at 28th. However, Washington’s ability to generate stolen bases—ranking 10th in the league—could play a crucial role in creating scoring opportunities. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Nationals have a slightly higher implied team total of 4.45 runs compared to the White Sox’s 4.05, suggesting that oddsmakers believe Washington could edge out their opponents in this matchup.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Yoendrys Gomez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to league average, Yoendrys Gomez has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -8.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Will Robertson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Will Robertson has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Colson Montgomery pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Cade Cavalli – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Cade Cavalli has a reverse platoon split and is fortunate enough to be facing 6 opposite-handed batters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  This season, James Wood has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 98.6 mph compared to last year’s 96.6 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Paul DeJong).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+14.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  James Wood has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+3.60 Units / 55% ROI)