Boston Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)-240
As the Boston Red Sox travel to Detroit to take on the Tigers on May 14, 2025, each team finds itself in a different place in the standings. The Detroit Tigers are riding high with a 28-15 record, while the Boston Red Sox sit at a mere 22-22, marking them as an average team this season. In their last matchup, the Tigers took the win against the Red Sox, highlighting their current form and dominance in this series.
The Tigers will send out ace Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season. With a 4-2 Win/Loss record and an impressive ERA of 2.08, Skubal ranks 1st among starting pitchers in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the mound. He is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing just 1.7 earned runs on average, while striking out 7.6 batters. Facing him is Boston’s Hunter Dobbins, who, despite a 2-1 record and a solid ERA of 2.78, is considered below average overall. With a low strikeout rate of 19.8%, Dobbins may struggle against the Tigers’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 5th in MLB.
Offensively, the Tigers are in fine form, boasting the 6th best offense and 4th best batting average in MLB, while their pitching staff ranks 2nd in the league overall. The projections indicate the Tigers could post an average of 4.13 runs, while the Red Sox are projected for just 2.87 runs, reflecting their struggles at the plate. With a significant betting line favoring Detroit at -215, suggesting a strong likelihood of victory, the Tigers hold the edge going into this matchup.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Hunter Dobbins – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)Compared to league average, Hunter Dobbins has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying an -10.6 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Rafael Devers has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season’s 93.1-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Boston Red Sox hitters jointly rank among the elite in the majors this year () in regard to their 91-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Tarik Skubal has utilized his change-up 5.3% more often this year (32.5%) than he did last season (27.2%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Typically, hitters like Javier Baez who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Hunter Dobbins.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Today, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.5% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+120)The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)Trey Sweeney has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+14.70 Units / 147% ROI)