Picks and Betting Guide for Marlins vs D-Backs – Saturday, June 28, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to face the Miami Marlins on June 28, 2025, they find themselves in a tightly contested matchup following a dramatic game yesterday, where the Marlins edged the Diamondbacks 9-8. The Diamondbacks, currently sitting at 41-40, are looking to bounce back against a struggling Marlins team that holds a 35-45 record.

The Diamondbacks will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound, who has had an average season with an 8-5 record and a 5.49 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.14 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. Pfaadt’s average projection of 5.8 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed suggests he might keep the Marlins in check, especially given their struggles with power, as they rank 26th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Sandy Alcantara will take the hill for the Marlins. Despite being ranked 52nd among starting pitchers, Alcantara has had a rough year with a 6.69 ERA and a concerning 10.3% walk rate. His high-groundball tendency may be challenged by a Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd overall in MLB, showcasing a potent lineup capable of capitalizing on mistakes.

With the Diamondbacks holding a strong implied team total of 4.99 runs for this game, bettors might find value in their ability to bounce back from yesterday’s loss. The Diamondbacks’ offense, highlighted by their 118 home runs this season, could exploit Alcantara’s control issues, making them a solid play as they seek to even the series.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Sandy Alcantara’s 96.5-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 95th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Eric Wagaman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (77% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Connor Norby, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #29 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Randal Grichuk has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 70 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+14.40 Units / 288% ROI)